- Datum: 17.11.2022
- Land:Brasilien
- Kategorie:Berichte & Analysen
Cenário macro – Brasil (Novembro 2022)
Fiscal sustainability will continue to be the main challenge of the next government. It is not a matter of concern with the fiscal numbers…
Fiscal sustainability will continue to be the main challenge of the next government. It is not a matter of concern with the fiscal numbers of 2022, which will again be better than expected, but rather with the trajectory ahead. The next government will have to decide, in the short term, whether to continue the aid and tax cuts that have just been implemented, as well as the fiscal framework that will be applied ahead in an emerging economy with high public debt and high interest rates. This is a discussion that probably will determine the first half of 2023. There is an estimation of a primary surplus of 1.1% of GDP in 2022 (previously: 1.0%), a deficit of 1.5% in 2023 and gross debt at 74% and 78% of GDP this year and next, respectively. Economic activity growth is expected to lose momentum in the second half of the year. Itaú expects the GDP to grow 0.4% in the 3rd quarter and 0.1% in the fourth quarter, closing the year at 2.7% (from 2.5% in the previous scenario). For 2023, there will be an increase of 0.7% (from 0.5%), with a better outlook for agricultural crops. for the labor market, data suggest that projections foresee an unemployment rate of 8.6% (from 9.1%) in 2022 and of 9.3% (from 10.1%) in 2023.
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